Overrated fantasy football players aren’t necessarily struggling players this season. They are players who are being drafted too high compared to their expected production versus players in the same position who are being drafted much lower. Successful fantasy football team owners are owners who recognize value in each round and select accordingly. There is no established methodology on which position to select in each round or which players should be selected in each round. As always, KNOW YOUR SCORE system and let that dictate your writing strategy and be flexible with your strategy so that you can make adjustments on the fly based on how the draft unfolds so that you can recognize the Value in players who still They’re available.
Assuming a standard fantasy football scoring system, let’s cite the players we are seeing selected too high compared to other players at their position. Currently, the most overrated fantasy football players to date, based on their Average Draft Position, are as follows.
QB: Peyton Manning (Denver) – Peyton started showing his age towards the end of 2014. He was still the third-highest-scoring quarterback last season, but that won’t happen this year and is being selected as the third-highest quarterback. Manning is a little slower, throws more interceptions, the Broncos are much more confident in his running game and Peyton has lost some weapons. Wes Welker and Julian Thomas are gone and RB CJ Anderson is blowing up. I’m still expecting 4,000 yards and 30 TDs from Peyton, but you can get that kind of production later in the draft from a lot of other quarterbacks … quarterbacks who are much younger and more mobile than the 39-year-old Manning.
RB: Jonathan Stewart (Carolina) – There are a lot of people who felt that Stewart fit in last season and will lead him to a successful 2015. Sure, he averaged 100 ypg in his last 4 and the Panthers let RB DeAngelo Williams go, but I didn’t buy him. He’s only had a 200-plus carry season due to injuries and has already hurt his ankle this summer. If you decide it’s worth the risk, be sure to also hire Cameron Artis-Payne to connect you on the day the switch happens.
WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo) – Sammy Watkins is as talented as a catcher in the AFC East, but you won’t notice it this season. Kyle Orton was a useful quarterback, but he’s retired and the list of quarterbacks now in Buffalo makes one person wince; Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor. Coach Rex Ryan has faced this situation before and I can guarantee you that he will try to win by running the ball and letting his defense do most of the work. Also, Sammy is coming off hip surgery, which is definitely not going to help. The NFL is chock-full of quality WRs, so don’t waste a minute on Watkins as it could be a wasted pick.
TE Julius Thomas (Jacksonville) – Julius is very talented, but he may never see the production he had in Denver again. Of course, you have 46 million reasons not to be too upset about it. Thomas’ greatest value has always come in the form of TD. Because Denver was so talented, he was never trusted as a high-sack / yardage option. Now, Jacksonville is largely lacking in receiving talent, so it could mean Thomas will make up for his drop in TD receptions with more catches and yards, but it could also mean he will face double teams. It’s too risky to consider taking it in single-digit rounds when there could be half a dozen tight ends ending with the same, or better, numbers that are drawn up in double-digit rounds.
K Stephen Gostkowski (New England) – Gostkowski was the highest-scoring kicker in the NFL last season, so he should be the highest kicker in the draft, right? Well, I would agree, but why take ANY kicker before his last or penultimate round? Philly K Cody Parker was just 2 field goals behind Gostkowski in points and no one is thinking of beating him with a WR4 or RB4. Fill your bench before taking a kicker.
D Seattle – On the same lines as a kicker, WAIT on your defense. Unless you have a solid scoring system that rewards defenses heavily, the point spread between the top twelve defenders is too small to think about taking a defense in single digit rounds. Seattle gets A LOT of press and has been to two consecutive Super Bowls, but they weren’t the highest-scoring defense in fantasy last year, even after having an ADP in single-digit rounds. In fact, in some formats, they were the 7-9 highest-scoring defense in 2014. Before I throw a kicker, I always start two rounds early and grab my first defense and then grab my second defense. The best defenses fluctuate every year. Who would have guessed that Philadelphia would have had the highest-scoring fantasy defense last season?